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For the sake of completeness, I am also highlighting the numbers from the URA quarterly reports in 2018.
My comments are underneath each screenshot.
When there is huge supply pending to be out, the government will give warnings. This is from 2nd quarter of 2018. Warnings of 19,500 units coming up next year.
At the end of 3rd Quarter of 2018 – The number has been revised to 14,200 units.
This numbers is from the 4th Quarter 2018. Take note most en-bloc sales halted after the July 2018 cooling measures. The awarded en-bloc sale sites has been reduced to 3,300 units.
Further Points To Consider
Property oversupply could mean good news – developers will not dare to increase prices.
Property undersupply could mean bad news – developers could choose to increase prices anytime they want.
I am not expert who can tell whether a developer will drop the price or not.
But let’s think about it.
If you are the developer:
Will you sell the property lower price when you have record number of unsold units?
Or will you sell cheaper when the market has lesser unsold units?
Will we be able to replenish the 1000 units sold every month over the past 3 months?
If there is no replenishment – can we create another record high stock of unsold units to encourage developers to lower the price?
This means the number of unsold units will only get lower as time passes.
Worst case scenario – nobody buys and the graph remains flat.
Most En-bloc Sales Sites Have Been Launched
Most en-blocs in the market has been launched actually since we are now approaching the final quarter of 2019.
This means majority of the units are available in the market – are ready.
Ready to be chosen.
Will the $600k to $1 million property be sold first?
Or will the $2 million property get sold first?
If your budget to buy the next property is below $1.5m – do you think you will have more choices now?
Or later when more units has been sold?
That is when buyers will comment: “The price is good. But the units are no good. If got the better unit – then I will consider.”
Yes, these are the typical human behaviours 😉
Maybe you are waiting for the $2 million property to drop to $1.5m?
Then we need to check how likely is that to happen.
Let me show you a transaction done at Treasure at Tampines.
The average breakeven price is $1,113 PSF.
Treasure @ Tampines – Breakeven Price
Treasure @ Tampines Transactions
But… the big units there is selling at less then $1200 PSF – barely at the breakeven prices.
It will take a lot of courage for developers to sell at even lower prices to you.
The Previous Peak Supply Was In 2014 and 2015
In 2014 and 2015, the supply of unsold units was hitting a record high.
However, there were still people who purchased a private property during that period.
Bought during the peak supply period of 2014 and 2015
Bought during the peak supply period of 2014 and 2015
Bought during the peak supply period of 2014 and 2015
I am not saying everyone who bought during that period made significant gains.
But those who bought the developments here did very well.
And they made the decision to exit in the bullish period of 2018 to realize those gains.
With peak supply, the pressure is not on the buyers. 🙂
In the end, all these numbers are only based on new launches and unsold units.
I been noticing that many people have the perception that there is oversupply without knowing the real figures.
Of course, this does not include resale units and the factor of a recession that many people are saying will come next year.
The key is to plan well. There are “recession-proof” units that are available today – from which we can get a much safer investment.
These units can be for own stay or as a pure investment.
Conclusion
Sometimes too much analysis will lead to paralysis. 😉
It is very easy to stop yourselves from doing anything if you made a conclusion prematurely just based on reading headlines.
But I like to encourage you to really find out by actually looking at what is really happening in the property market.
The key is moderation of prices – by actions from the government to control the supply.
Ultimately you will need to prioritize what matters most to you.
You will need to understand the differences between what’s important and what’s urgent.
What is important: Understanding how property investment works. Data like supply charts, PSF prices and transaction data will need to analyzed.
What is urgent:Having the realization that any investment takes time to grow. Time is the most essential factor in order for compounding returns to happen.
Making a decision on how you will make your money work harder for you – will it be via a property or something else?
Will I have time to sit down and study the “something else”?
Property buyers are entering the market and snapping up the choice and quality units – those that are has the highest chances of making significant gains in the future. I foresee that such quality units will be quickly taken up.
Gary Seah is the founder of Second Property Investors and has been writing since 2015 to share his insights in the Singapore property market.
He has helped many people to strategize, plan & restructure their property portfolio and get the best profit from it.
Gary has been the agent behind many lucrative upgrading case studies.
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