Is There A Property Oversupply In Singapore?

I have regular daily conversations with Second Property Investors readers & followers through phonecalls, whatsapp and FB.

One of the biggest concerns that I will consistently hear is this…

“Today there is a property oversupply. Developers will drop the price soon when they can’t sell. So we will wait for it before we proceed.”

We will wait for prices to drop….

But is it worth waiting?

Sometimes we need to know what are we waiting for.

Are we waiting for the following to happen:

• Is the supply of unsold units has become lower now?
• Has all the en-bloc sites proceeded to launch their new projects?

All this can be found in the quarterly URA report.

There are a lot of numbers in the report so to prevent confusion – I am going to highlight 3 main parts from this.

Please read the report in its entirety here to get a fuller context.

Part 1: The number of unsold units dropped from 36,839 to 33,673 by end of 2nd Quarter of 2019

Over a period of 3 months, there has been a drop of 3,166 units. This means 3,166 units has been sold so far.

An average of 1,000 units per month.

It also implies we have passed the peak property supply which happened in the first quarter of 2019.

We have passed the peak supply period

Part 2: En-bloc Sales Sites Have Been Considered & Included

From URA’s 2nd Quarter 2019 Report

To summarize the above paragraph – this means there is a potential supply of 7,100 units coming up at the end of 2nd Quarter of 2019.

• 6,500 units are from the Government Land Sales and Confirmed List sites
• 600 units are from awarded en-bloc sale sites.

There exists a big group of people who are still thinking there has been a lot of en-bloc sales happening.

Thanks to the headlines from 2018 en-bloc fever, alot of people still believe the property supply is still a lot.

But is it really true?

The reference #5 about the 600 units from awarded en-bloc sale sites. This can be found near the bottom of the report.

Reading this reference #5, it implies all the en-bloc sales sites have been included except the last 600 units.

Here are some questions to ask yourself:

• Is there really a property oversupply?
• If there is an oversupply, why is the government still putting supply into the market via GLS?

Part 3: Government Land Sales (GLS) Are Still Going On For Past 2 Quarters of 2019

From URA’s 1st Quarter 2019 report

In the previous URA report here, there is 5,200 units coming up from GLS from the 1st Quarter of 2019.

• 4,700 units from awarded GLS sites and Confirmed List
• 500 units from awarded en-bloc sale sites.

Government Land Sales have been going on for the past TWO quarters of 2019.

If there is truly an oversupply, why is the government still releasing land for private housing sales?

“But I’ve been reading about property oversupply everywhere!”

Yes, you might have seen headlines about this property supply in various news.

You might even have read this one before.

This Bloomberg article is based from the MND press release on 6 June 2019.

The exact paragraph is here:

This was released on 6 June 2019. The numbers has changed since then.

The 39,000 unsold units are refering to the 1st Quarter 2019 report here:

So do take note that some of these headline news might be based on older data. 

Always do your best to check for the latest URA report to find out the property supply news in Singapore.

I wrote about understanding the supply charts about 2 years ago – you can refer to it here: Why Understanding The Supply Charts of Private Residential Units Is So Important

Analyzing the 2018 URA Quarterly Reports

For the sake of completeness, I am also highlighting the numbers from the URA quarterly reports in 2018.

My comments are underneath each screenshot.

When there is huge supply pending to be out, the government will give warnings. This is from 2nd quarter of 2018. Warnings of 19,500 units coming up next year.

At the end of 3rd Quarter of 2018 – The number has been revised to 14,200 units.

This numbers is from the 4th Quarter 2018. Take note most en-bloc sales halted after the July 2018 cooling measures. The awarded en-bloc sale sites has been reduced to 3,300 units.

Further Points To Consider

Property oversupply could mean good news – developers will not dare to increase prices.

Property undersupply could mean bad news – developers could choose to increase prices anytime they want.

I am not expert who can tell whether a developer will drop the price or not.

But let’s think about it.

If you are the developer:

• Will you sell the property lower price when you have record number of unsold units?
• Or will you sell cheaper when the market has lesser unsold units?

Take note – currently there is no more enbloc activity. (Thanks to the July 2018 cooling measures.)

Will we be able to replenish the 1000 units sold every month over the past 3 months?

If there is no replenishment – can we create another record high stock of unsold units to encourage developers to lower the price?

This means the number of unsold units will only get lower as time passes.

Worst case scenario – nobody buys and the graph remains flat.

Most En-bloc Sales Sites Have Been Launched

Most en-blocs in the market has been launched actually since we are now approaching the final quarter of 2019.

This means majority of the units are available in the market – are ready.

Ready to be chosen.

• Will the $600k to $1 million property be sold first?
• Or will the $2 million property get sold first?

If your budget to buy the next property is below $1.5m – do you think you will have more choices now?

Or later when more units has been sold?

That is when buyers will comment:
“The price is good. But the units are no good. If got the better unit – then I will consider.”

Yes, these are the typical human behaviours 😉

Maybe you are waiting for the $2 million property to drop to $1.5m?

Then we need to check how likely is that to happen.

Let me show you a transaction done at Treasure at Tampines.

The average breakeven price is $1,113 PSF.

But… the big units there is selling at less then $1200 PSF – barely at the breakeven prices.

It will take a lot of courage for developers to sell at even lower prices to you.

The Previous Peak Supply Was In 2014 and 2015

In 2014 and 2015, the supply of unsold units was hitting a record high.

However, there were still people who purchased a private property during that period.

Bought during the peak supply period of 2014 and 2015

Bought during the peak supply period of 2014 and 2015

Bought during the peak supply period of 2014 and 2015

I am not saying everyone who bought during that period made significant gains.

But those who bought the developments here did very well.

And they made the decision to exit in the bullish period of 2018 to realize those gains.

With peak supply, the pressure is not on the buyers. 🙂

In the end, all these numbers are only based on new launches and unsold units.

I been noticing that many people have the perception that there is oversupply without knowing the real figures.

Of course, this does not include resale units and the factor of a recession that many people are saying will come next year.

The key is to plan well. There are “recession-proof” units that are available today – from which we can get a much safer investment.

These units can be for own stay or as a pure investment.

Conclusion

Sometimes too much analysis will lead to paralysis. 😉

It is very easy to stop yourselves from doing anything if you made a conclusion prematurely just based on reading headlines.

But I like to encourage you to really find out by actually looking at what is really happening in the property market.

The key is moderation of prices – by actions from the government to control the supply.

Ultimately you will need to prioritize what matters most to you.

You will need to understand the differences between what’s important and what’s urgent. 

What is important: Understanding how property investment works. Data like supply charts, PSF prices and transaction data will need to analyzed.

What is urgent: Having the realization that any investment takes time to grow. Time is the most essential factor in order for compounding returns to happen.

• Making a decision on how you will make your money work harder for you – will it be via a property or something else?
• Will I have time to sit down and study the “something else”?

That is the more urgent decision to make – how to use your time wisely.

There is another trend I want to highlight:

Property buyers are entering the market and snapping up the choice and quality units – those that are has the highest chances of making significant gains in the future. I foresee that such quality units will be quickly taken up.

Keen to find out more about what options are available to you? I invite you to contact me for a no-obligation discussion.